Thứ Bảy, 24 tháng 12, 2016

Economic growth for third quarter revised upwards to 0.6% by ONS



There was no sign of a Brexit-linked slowdown for the UK economy in the latest revisions to official growth figures.

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But while the Office for National Statistics (ONS) upwardly revised third quarter growth to 0.6% from 0.5% in its previous reading, it said the annual rate of growth eased to 2.2% because of other revisions.

The latest data suggested that the economy's dependence on consumer spending was greater than first thought in the three months to September as it offset a markedly worse picture for trade.

Net trade, the ONS said, acted as a drag of 1.2 percentage points in the quarter - its highest level in almost five years - though it said much of the revision was down to a recent correction in the miscalculation in the trade of gold.



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Video:CBI chief: Hammond must keep investment focus

More recent figures have suggested exports are now just starting to benefit from the collapse in the value of the pound in the wake of the EU vote - a scenario which makes UK-priced goods cheaper for foreign buyers.

Some experts had predicted the economy would suffer in the event of a Leave win in June's referendum but it has proved more resilient, largely because consumer spending has held strong.

While thJav E-bodye headline growth figure is encouraging for the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, he warned in his Autumn Statement that tougher times lie ahead of the economy amid uncertainties over the terms of the divorce from the EU.
Image Caption:Christmas shopping is believed to have held up

Consumer sentiment is also expected to face a greater test in the coming months because inflation, at a two-year high, is predicted to climb further as imports become more expensive compared to a year earlier.

Economists see a squeeze on household spending power as those rising costs become more likely to be passed on through new supply contracts.

Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Markit, said the latest economic figures suggested people were dipping in to savings to help fund big purchases now ahead of price hikes ahead.

"Despite the current resilience, 2017 is likely to be an increasingly difficult year for the UK economy," he said.

"Indeed, we expect GDP growth to slow markedly to 1.3% in 2017 - as consumer fundamentals weaken markedly and uncertainty is heightened by the Government triggering Article 50 to formally start the UK's exit from the European Union."

European Banks Deutsche and Credit Suisse agree $12.5bn US fines



Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have agreed to pay $7.2bn (£5.9bn) and $5.3bn (£4.3bn) respectively in penalties relating to the collapse of the US housing market before the financial crisis.
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The Swiss lender announced it had reached a deal with the US Department of Justice hours after a similar move by Deutsche.

While the German bank's sum is half the $14bn originally sought by investigators, it is more than $2bn above the amount analysts expected Europe's third-largest bank to shell out.

Deutsche also warned the deal, following four months of negotiations, was subject to potential revision. Its share price rose more than 4% in early trading in Frankfurt before settling 2% higher.

US officials refused to comment on the bank's announcement though they did confirm that Barclays was also to be sued in relation to the sale of mortgage-backed securities.
Image Caption:Barclays wants the US case against it to be withdrawn

The UK-based bank responded by saying it rejected the case and would seek to have it dismissed.

The case against Deutsche, the third-largest bank in Europe, centred on its behaviour in the US home loans sector.

A 2011 US Senate sub-committee report found widespread "troubling practices" with one trader apparently telling colleagues that many mortgages the bank was packaging into securities were "crap" and "pigs."
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Deutsche said that as part of its agreement with the DoJ it would pay a civil penalty of $3.1bn and provide $4.1bn in consumer relief, such as loan forgiveness.

It had made provisions of more than $5bn to cover the costs of the case but said it would set aside a further $1.2bn in its fourth quarter.

Credit Suisse said of its sanction: "Under the terms of the settlement, Credit Suisse would pay to the DoJ a civil monetary penalty of $2.48bn.

"In addition, Credit Suisse would provide consumer relief totaling $2.8bn over the course of five years post settlement."
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While many US banks including JPMorgan, Citi and Bank of America have also agreed settlements with the DoJ, the inquiry is yet to reach a resolution for RBS as well as Barclays.

The lawsuit against Barclays accuses the bank and its employees of misrepresenting the quality of loans they sold to tens of thousands of investors between 2005 and 2007 at a cost of them of billions of dollars.

Barclays said in reponse: "Barclays considers that the claims made in the complaint are disconnected from the facts.

"We have an obligation to our shareholders, customers, clients, and employees to defend ourselves against unreasonable allegations and demands."

"Barclays will vigorously defend the complaint and seek its dismissal at the earliest opportunity."

Its stock closed 0.9% down on the FTSE 100 on Friday.